A Few Dollars More

This week saw the markets advance, despite some disappointing economic data, but progress can only be described as Grinch-like. Still, there’s nothing in the tea leaves that indicate that this coming week will be anything more than a big yawn at worst and maybe a moderate new yearly high at best.

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A contrarian is a person who prefers to take positions and views that are opposite of those in the majority. There is also a practice of some on the Street that when some event or person reaches the cover of a prominent national magazine, it is time to move on or to take a ‘contrarian’ [...]

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We have been stuck in a trading range since early November. It is the most extended period of narrow, sideways trading we have experienced since hitting a low on the S&P 500 Index of 666 back in March. Since then the index has rallied 62%. That’s the largest gain for the S&P since 1933. Normally, [...]

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We’ll give the bulls an ‘A” for effort. Every day this week they pushed the S&P 500 higher, making two new yearly highs, before sellers appeared to drive the averages back down.

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While Americans were home celebrating Thanksgiving, the rest of the world had little to celebrate. Over the last two days, some Asian markets fell as much as 5%, emerging markets overall declined by 2.7% while Europe experienced similar declines. Commodities also tumbled and the U.S. dollar suddenly became the currency of choice.

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We’ve seen some profit-taking this week and as the year winds down, we may see more. That doesn’t mean the markets can’t go higher. It just means that for some investors, who got in early in March or before, it’s time to cash in some of those winnings.

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There was one axiom that investors could almost always rely on: as interest rates decline, stocks move higher. But things got squirrely last year and with the financial system on the verge of collapse; the Federal Reserve forced interest rates down to historic low levels in an effort to provide liquidity to banks and other [...]

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Once more into the breach, the bulls say, as they assault the 10,000 level on the Dow. Will we fail or succeed? If we can hold above that level it may provide the psychological boost we need to entice more investors into the market. I say we will hold the higher ground.

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The markets had pulled back about 5% by Thursday. Technically, stocks were over sold. We were due for a bounce. “Buy the dip” was on everyone’s lips and then on Thursday morning, GDP for the third quarter came in at 3.5%–an upside surprise. Stocks exploded. Sounds easy, right? Think again.

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The economic numbers have been positive. The same could be said for overseas market data as well. Third quarter earnings, for the most part, have also been robust. So why isn’t the stock market resuming its winning ways? I believe it is a classic case of selling the good news.

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